Look. I'm starting with the NL East, because I want to. I happen to think that this could be a great division to watch, but I'm going to make it quick anyways.
1. Mets - Yup, this is the year the Braves finally lose it. I like to pick track records, particularly 14 consecutive years worth of track records, but not this time. The Mets are just too good. Assuming, of course, that Pedro can hold up. If they lose him for any extended amount of time, all bets are off. Oh, and David Wright and Jose Reyes? The real deal.
2. Phillies - The question here is, is Ryan Howard the next David Ortiz? If so, then the Phillies are a legitimate threat for the Wild Card. If Howard is more like the next, oh, I don't know, Cecil Fielder? Phillies don't have a chance.
3. Braves - They may have fallen a bit, but they're still not worse than Washington or Florida.
4. Nationals - Maybe when they have an owner they can compete. Until then? Not so much.
5. Marlins - Actually, if I was a Marlins fan, I think I would be alright with the way this team was put together. Think Cleveland a few years back. If the team's going to lose, and the Marlins are definitely going to lose, they might as well have potential. In five years though? The Mets and Marlins will be fighting it out for this division.
AL East
1. Yankees - Look, I know the Sox have Beckett and Schilling. And I know Papelbon is the Second Coming of the Rocket. But.. This isn't a question of who would win a short series. This is a question of who would win the Division. And right now, the Red Sox have too many questions to think that they can win the 95 games necessary to win it. The Yankees lineup is just too good. Say what you want about the Yankee's pitching, but Randy Johnson, as much as I hate him, has won 5 Cy Young's. Mussina? Known factor. Over the course of the season, these two are going to pitch well enough to win the division.
2. Red Sox - If they win the Wild Card, which they might, then they would be my favorite to win the World Series. But they have so many question marks, that anyone who picks them to win the division is ignoring quite a bit. If either Manny or Ortiz is out for any period of time, then the Red Sox have, quite simply, no offense. Even with the the two of them playing like the best two hitters in the league (Which, in the AL, they might be) The Red Sox simply don't have enough pitching. Schilling may or not hold up, but at least he has in the past. Beckett? Big game pitcher, yes. But he's won 45 career games!!! Every other Sox starter? Iffy as well. Papelbon has great stuff, and seems to have the right personality. Personally I think they are wasting him in the bullpen, but that's just me. With him closing, the Sox bullpen should be strong enough. Would I be shocked to see the Sox win the division? No. Do I think it's going to happen? No.
3. Blue Jays - I'm a little tired of hearing about how much better they got. Seriously? Compare them position by position to the Red Sox or the Yankees. They might have two players that would start for either team. Vernon Wells is better than either Damon or Crisp, maybe. Their pitching? Unproven. No way the Blue Jays win in September in either Boston or New York, but they could make it interesting until then.
4. Orioles - Only the wizadry of Leo Mazzone (former Braves pitching coach) keeps them out of the basement in the East. And Miguel Tejada, who is the best shortstop in baseball, unless his bitterness over playing in Baltimore takes over and he starts pouting. Which could happen.
5. Devil Rays - A much improved team, Tampa could be the best last place team in baseball, but their pitching still makes them a last place team. Carl Crawford? Maybe this will be the year he gets some pub for being one of the best overall players in the game.
Tomorrow? Wild Card Picks, and maybe the playoffs if I'm in the mood.
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